LIVE DATA

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MODEL AGREEMENT

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COLLECTING

Waiting for models

Updated --

Wind----

Humidity--Dew point-aware comfort

Pressure--Mean sea level

Visibility--Current estimate

Sunrise--Sunset --

Clouds--Gusts --

NEXT 12 HOURS

Hour by hour

Temp Rain

7-DAY OUTLOOK

Daily forecast

FORECAST CHANGE LOG

Why did the forecast change?

A previous forecast run is needed before changes can be measured.

LIVE RADAR

Radar timeline

PastLoading radar…Latest

Radar tiles: RainViewer. Base map: OpenStreetMap contributors. Radar availability is best-effort.

OUR FORECAST ENGINE

Model comparison

Not loaded

BLENDED

Our Forecast

Combining available models with neutral weights until verified local performance is strong enough to adjust them.

Next hour--°

Rain chance--%

Wind-- mph

SPREAD

What the models disagree about

V2.5 PERSISTENT LEARNING + GAP RECOVERY

Who is actually getting it right?

V2.1 stores forecast snapshots in a persistent SQLite database, verifies them against nearby official NWS station observations, and automatically reconstructs missing model runs and observations from the previous 72 hours whenever the PC comes back online.

Checking V2 database… Waiting for collector status

METHOD

How scoring works

Temperature

Mean absolute error plus signed bias. V2 can correct a model that repeatedly runs warm or cold.

Forecast horizon

0–3h, 4–12h, 13–24h, and 25–72h are scored separately so short-range skill does not automatically control longer forecasts.

Wind + rain

Wind MAE, rain hit rate, and Brier probability score are used when the official station observation contains enough data.

Minimum evidence

20 verified samples are required before learned weighting begins. More samples progressively increase confidence.

SETTINGS

Forecast preferences

Auto-refreshRefresh live weather every 15 minutes while the app is open. Browser fallback verificationUsed only if the V2 backend is unavailable. The main V2 database collects independently. Default unitsV2 currently uses U.S. units.°F · mph · in Official warningsNWS watches, warnings, and advisories are always shown when available.ON

Persistent learning databaseChecking stored prediction and verification counts…V2

Hourly background collectorThe Windows scheduled task runs hourly. After sleep or shutdown, V2.1 scans the previous 72 hours and fills recoverable gaps from archived model runs and NWS observations.72H RECOVERY

DATA SOURCES

What powers this build

Open-MeteoLive forecasts plus archived Single Runs used for 72-hour gap recovery

NOAA / NWSOfficial alerts and station observations

RainViewerRadar map tiles and timeline metadata

OpenStreetMapMap baselayer

Never use this app as a replacement for official emergency instructions. Severe-weather decisions should follow NWS/NHC/local authorities.